Kwi-rebound yayo ukusuka kwi-2020 ukwehla, ixabiso le-Brent lathandana ne- $ 70 / bbl. Amaxabiso aphezulu ngo-2021 athetha ukuhamba kwemali okuphezulu kwabavelisi, mhlawumbi nokubeka irekhodi phezulu. Kule meko, ukubonelelwa ngezixhobo zendalo zehlabathi Umthi Mackenzie uthe abaqhubi kufuneka balumke.

"Ngelixa amaxabiso angaphezulu kwe- $ 60 / bbl eza kuhlala ingcono kubanikezeli kune- $ 40 / bbl, ayizizo zonke iindlela zokuhamba," utshilo. UGreig Aitken, UMlawuli weqela lohlalutyo lwequmrhu likaWoodMac. Kukho imiba engapheliyo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokuphazamiseka kwezemali. Kananjalo, ukutshintsha kweemeko kuyakwenza ukuba ukuphunyezwa kwesicwangciso kube ngumceli mngeni ngakumbi, ngakumbi ngokunxulumene nokwenza isivumelwano. Kwaye kukho ukungxama okuza rhoqo, xa abathathi-nxaxheba beqala ukujonga izifundo ezifundwe nzima njengezimvo eziphelelwe lixesha. Oku kuhlala kukhokelela ekwenziweni kwemali engaphaya kwemali kunye nokusebenza kakubi.

Umnumzana Aitken uthe abaqhubi kufuneka bahlale bejonge phambili. Iiplani zokuphumelela kwi- $ 40 / bbl iseyimiqobo yempumelelo xa amaxabiso ephezulu, kodwa kukho inani lemiba abaqhubi ekufuneka bayigcine engqondweni. Kwelinye, ukuhla kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso akunakuphepheka. UWood Mackenzie uthe unikezelo lwentengiso lubanjiwe, kwaye ukungxama kwemisebenzi kuya kuqinisa ngokukhawuleza iimarike kubangele ukuba iindleko zikhuphuke ngokukhawuleza.

Okwesibini, imigaqo yezemali inokuthi iqiniswe. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile yeyona nto iphambili kuphazamiso lwezemali. Iinkqubo ezininzi zemali ziqhubela phambili kwaye zimiselwe ukunyusa isabelo sikarhulumente ngamaxabiso aphezulu ngokuzenzekelayo, kodwa uninzi alunjalo.

"Amabango 'esabelo esifanelekileyo' aya esanda ngamaxabiso aphezulu, kwaye ukomeleza amaxabiso ngekhe kungabonakali," utshilo uMnu Aitken. “Ngelixa iinkampani zeoyile zilwa notshintsho kumgaqo wezemali ngezisongelo zotyalo-mali olusezantsi kunye nemisebenzi embalwa, oku kunokuba buthathaka ngamacebo okuphelisa umoya okanye ukuvuna iiasethi kwimimandla ethile. Amaxabiso aphezulu erhafu, iingeniso ezintsha zerhafu yengeniso, nditsho neerhafu zekhabhoni zinokulinda emaphikweni. ”

Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunokugcina uhlengahlengiso lwephothifoliyo ngokunjalo. Ngelixa ii-asethi ezininzi zithengiswa, nkqu nakwi- $ 60 / bbl world, abathengi basazokunqaba. Umnumzana Aitken uthe izisombululo zokunqongophala kwemali azitshintshi. Ngaba abathengisi banakho ukwamkela ixabiso lentengiso, bathengise iiasethi ezikumgangatho ongcono, zibandakanye iimeko ezingxamisekileyo kwisivumelwano, okanye babambelele.

"Ukunyuka kweoyile ephezulu, kugxininisa ngakumbi ukubambelela kwiiasethi," utshilo. “Ukuthatha ixabiso lentengiso elalixhaphakile yayisisigqibo esilula xa amaxabiso nokuzithemba kwakuphantsi. Kuba nzima ngakumbi ukuthengisa iiasethi ngamaxabiso asezantsi kwimeko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ii-asethi zivelisa imali kwaye abaqhubi abanalo uxinzelelo oluncinci lokuthengisa ngenxa yokunyuka kwemali nokuhamba lula.

Nangona kunjalo, iipotifoliyo ezinobungakanani obuphezulu zibalulekile. Umnumzana Aitken uthe: “Kuza kuba nzima ukubamba umgca ngamaxabiso aphezulu. Iinkampani zithethile kakhulu ngoqeqesho, zigxile kunciphiso lwetyala kunye nokwanda kokwabiwa kwezabelo. Ezi ziimpikiswano ezilula ukuzenza xa ioyile ingu- $ 50 / bbl. Esi sisombululo siza kuvavanywa ngokwanda kwamaxabiso ezabelo, ukonyusa ukuveliswa kwemali kunye nokuphucula imeko kwicandelo leoyile negesi. ”

Ukuba amaxabiso abambe ngaphezulu kwe- $ 60 / bbl, ii-IOCs ezininzi zinokubuyela umva ngokubhekisele kwimimandla yazo yezemali ngokukhawuleza kunokuba amaxabiso eyi- $ 50 / bbl. Oku kunika indawo enkulu yokuthatha amathuba kumandla amatsha okanye kwi-decarbonisation. Kodwa oku kunokusetyenziselwa ukutyala kwakhona kuphuhliso oluphezulu.

Abazimeleyo banokubona ukukhula kubuyela ngokukhawuleza kwii-ajenda zabo: uninzi lwabazimeleyo base-US banezithintelo zokuzibophelela ngokwabo kwi-70-80% yokuhamba kwemali. Ukwabiwa kweyona njongo iphambili yeenkampani ezininzi ezinamatyala amakhulu e-US, kodwa uMnu Aitken uthe oku kusashiya indawo yokukhula komlinganiso ngaphakathi kokunyuka kwemali. Ngaphaya koko, bambalwa abazimeleyo bamazwe aphesheya abaye benza uhlobo olufanayo lokuzibophelela kuguquko njengabaphakamileyo. Azinasizathu sokuguqula ukuphuma kwemali kwioyile nakwigesi.

“Ngaba eli candelo lingaphinda lithwaleke kwakhona? Okona kuncinci, ukugxila kukomelela kuya kunika indlela kwingxoxo malunga nexabiso lokuphakama. Ukuba imarike ibinokuqala kwakhona ukukhula okunomvuzo, kunokwenzeka. Kungathatha ikota ezininzi zokufumana iziphumo ezomeleleyo zokwenza izinto ezibonakalayo, kodwa icandelo leoyile linembali yokuba lelona tshaba lalo libi, ”utshilo uMnu Aitken.